Electric power engineering and TNC's activities in Ukraine
To understand those tendencies, which exist in Ukrainian electric power policy, particular concerning TNCs, it's necessary to make short survey of Ukrainian economy structure before. Especially because of the integration of TNCs just starts here. Now it is possible to speak mainly about potential dangers of this process than about the results of it.
It's well known that the former Soviet Union countries are in a deep social-economical crisis at the moment. They say that if other former SU republics are on the edge of precipice then Ukraine is one step closer. Current economical development of Ukraine can be described as hyperdepression. During 1990-93 the level of industrial fall down was about 44% in Ukraine and in 1994 10% more. Ukraine faces extremely difficult problems because of the dependency from Russian deliveries on the internal market prices. The main problem is that Ukraine neither has enough own energy resources nor has currency to buy it according to world prices. Internal prices liberalisation policy causes permanent price rising. The part of heavy industry is big: 77% mining industry, oil and machinery industries. This kind of sitation is very typical for early development of European countries. Only Ukrainian steel industry is on the fifth place in the world, though 54% of the steel is manufactured using the old Martenovski method, where waste of energy is approximately 60% higher than Western European datas.
Ukraine is one of the biggest manufacturers of steel products (34%) and black metals products (30%), Military industry products (38%) among former SU countries. According to this structure and low level of technological development Ukrainian economy uses too much energy(?). However it has to be mentioned that because of the need of the re-equipment almost all metallurgical manufacture depends on foreign companies and it will take a long time until repaying all the depts. We can mention following companies: Mannesman (German) - 1 mlrd $, Schlieman(?), Siema(?), Ket(?) (all Germans).
One of the essential factors are also extremely low level of life cheap labour, and low ecological security requirements. Electrical energy in Ukraine is generated in thermal plants(60%), atomic plants (33.9%), hydropower plants "(6.1%) and others. Alternative methods of energy generation, for example wind energy, is used rare. According to data of 1991, energy has been generated from coal (34%), oil(20%), and gas (46%). Average efficency is 34% which is extremely low. There are 17 thermal power plants and Chernobyl atomic power plant in Ukraine. IN 1994 the capacity of all electric power plants was 54.4 mln. kw. including thermal(32.5), atomic(12.8) and hydro(4.7) power plants, blockstations(2.7), untraditional(0) and others(1.4).
In 1994 in Ukraine has been generated 201.6 mlrd kw/h, during half of 1995 year - 98.5 mlrd kw/h. Till 1990 (when electroenergy generation was about 288 mlrd kw/h) Ukraine has been traditionally exported it (20 mlrd kw/h in 1990). But now almost all electroenergy generated in Ukraine is being consumed here. Decreasing of electro energy generation can be explained by thermal power plants in copmarison with 1985 the generation cut down 14% or 63 Gw/year. At the same time atomic power generation increased from 20% in 1985 to 33.9% in 1995. At the moment the demand-supply management at the energy sector does not exist. There is no synounimous evaluation of the necessery energy amount. That's why it is difficult to say whether existing deficite is the result of low supply or of uneffective consumption.
It is clear that Ukraine needs completely new economical policy including the establishment of energy saving technologies and also centralised policy of energy saving. In existing situation it is very hard to make a forecast because of the uncertainty and unstability in this sphere. Here we will provide you a short overview of the following researches on this topic: 1) official scenario of government (OGS), 2) the scenario of German Institute of Applied Ecology(GIAE), 3) the scenario of World Bank, and 4) forecast of the Council of Ukrainian Labor Studies. All the existing scenarios start with the idea that after the depression of 1996-1997 the stabilisation process will follow step by step. At the same time it's supposed that the sanation and modernisation of industry will increase energy consumption, however, the consumption and energy generation will become more effective. Though the evaluations of stabilisation rate and used potentials are vary. In the majority of these scenarios it' s considered that in 2010 Ukraine will reach the 1990 energy consumption level (290 Gw/year).
These scenarios have been published in 1990 and in 1993 have been compared with real facts by the GIAE. Finally, the official scenario of government overvalues 20% of the energy consumption in Ukraine in 1995. The "high" WB scenario overvalues 7%. Only "low" WB scenario meets the facts - 206 Gw/year (supposed 204 Gw/year). According to official scenario of government and "high" scenario of WB in 2010 it's planned to achieve the energy consumption level of 1990 - 290 Gw/year. It's supposed that in 1996 there will be the minimal consumption level which already exceed 6% higher than was reached in 1993. The "low" scenario of WB reflects the evaluation since 1993 and prognoses minimal consumption 167 Gw/year in 1996. In 2010 it's planned to reach the level of 253 Gw/year. This result also (shouts) in value of prognosed scenario of Ecological Institute "Tendencies" (250 Gw/year). However, the charateristics of evaluation of these two foresee obviously differ from each other.
The charateristic of the scenario of the institute is much lower than the "low" scenario of WB, and it takes into consideration the fact, that in case of sharp economical depression the consumption of energy decreases even more than it's foreseen in the other scenarios. But after the achieving the critical point in scenario of "Tendencies" has been shown much quicker tempo of evaluation than in the "low" scenario of WB. According to scenario "Economia" tempo of evaluations will be about the same than in "low" scenario of WB and the consumption level of energy reaches to 188 Gw/year in 2010.
Let's bring also the main conclusions of the Institute of Applied Ecology (Germany) concerning the concrete ways of the evolution of the transforming of the complex of electroenergy and the necessary investments:
- for the purpose of the safety it's necessary not to exploit as the reactors of RBMK as VVER;
- the nulear power plant should be cloused as quickly as possible because the exploiting reactors are worth neither technical nor expenditurelal point of view. It is possible to do in the nearest time because the level of consumption of electroenergy will decrease and it's planned to reach the level of 1990 only in 2010;
- the continuation of building the three reactors with high level of preparedness and capacity (neto about 2860 Mw ton) could reduce to the lowest western level of safety. It concerns risk to spend about 13-20 mlrd. DM. But utilisation and decision making expenses are still unclear;
- with investing expenses from 7.5 to 10 mlrd. DM could keep the potential of energy - thermo 10 000 Mwt.
- in base of Ukrainian energy bearer And now let's try to have a look at existing and potential spheres of activities of TNCs.
Mostly it is a supposement but some last events diserve special attention. First of all governmental projects of the thorough privatisation in the fuel and energy sector and creation of the full nuclear cycle (Resolution #267 "On creation of nuclear-fuel complex"). According to the project of consultive company "Patment Tacing Environment"(London) the joint- stock company "Energorinok" , supposing creation of 4-5 regional joint-stock companies on energy generation. Now exists ABB j.-s. company, which closely cooperates with "Kievenergo" and has joint venture in Hmelnitskoe, planning to work for Hmelnitski APP in the future. What for the second resolution then many foreign corporations have great interest in it.
After the end of the Cold War and Chernobyl Disaster the danger of decreasing of demand for uran appeared. It was in a special interest of the Institute of Uran Researches (France), it is the biggest uran corporation. In this connection it is important to have well developed nuclear energy sector in Ukraine, which suffered from the disaster. This policy in Ukraine is connected with a hope to get back the status of energy exporter, which is possible in the case of ignoring the safety, less equipment using and tvel(?) selfmanufacture.
Besides some objects in nuclear sector are being built by " Wiken House" (Italy), ABB, Fiat Turbomas, and about ten more Italian companies. Among existing projects we should mention the proejct of International Consortium "Replacing the equipment of atomic energy power plants". For example, it is expected to increase of thermal energy power plants output within 2-4 years not less than 3 mln. kW because of the reconstruction. In 1998 they plan to start reconstruction of 6 gas turbin blocks and replacing by coal. The executors are: Concern Siemens, "Babkok-Lenties" (Germany), companies "Power John" (United Kingtom), "Traktebel" (Belgium), "Ansaldo" (Italy).
The project also suggests creation of the combinated cycle of steam-gas generators, using agregates from the first 3 blocks of atomic energy power plant. The list of participants in this consortium has been announced: "ABB, Asea Brown Boveri Ltd." as a leader, but also "ABB Kraftwerke AG", "Mannesman", "Stromberg" (Finnland), "Skanska Vattenfal AB" (Sweden), "Danish Power Consult", "Sulzer", "SAE Sadelmi" (Italy), "ABB Combustion Engineering", "CMS" (USA), "JGT", "Kawasaki Heavy Industries" (Japan).
It has to be mentioned that the main investor for many projects in energy sector and in fuel extraction has been European Bank of Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). There are also many dangers connected with existing situation in Ukrainian atomic energy sphere.
For example, Ukraine does not produce tvels(?) but Russia refused to sell it to this area. So, possible fuel supplier for APP can be a joint-stock company created by "Framatome", "Cogema", and "Siemens AG".
The Chernobyl zone is also attractive to the foreign companies because of the unpunishment and unexistment of publicity. This area is unic - it's unused and closed (prohibited) and it belongs to Minatomenergo Ukraini (one of the government departments). All these factors are favourable to keep toxic waste at this place, however, this perspective was discussed in the Ukrainian governmental circle.
These should be the main facts and overview of the development of elektroenergy in Ukraine connected with TNCs. For the end it is should be mentioned that the complicated and uncontrolled economical and political situation in Ukraine is very beneficial ground for foreign companies to get the Ukrainian manufacture and raw resources under their control. The clearest example is the destiny of Ukrainian oil exploitation from which half of it is under conrol of foreign capital. The same situation exists at black metallurgy sector. And if to try to choose the most charateristic line, which discribes the situation in Ukraine, then it would be general apathy of Ukrainian nation to as their own future and the future of their country as to activities of the TNCs in Ukraine.